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Tanabi vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Tanabi
Tanabiadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independente SP
Independente SP
Marcelo Macola 86'
8/16/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Semi-finalsEstádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tanabi42%
×Draw28%
Independente SP31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi
1.29
Independente SP
1.06

Tanabi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tanabi
1.50
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Tanabi
0.39
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw
69%
Tanabi or Independente SP
72%
Draw or Independente SP
58%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+
19%
Independente SP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals
72%
Tanabi 2+ goals
37%
Tanabi 3+ goals
14%
Independente SP 1+ goals
65%
Independente SP 2+ goals
29%
Independente SP 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)
58%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tanabi scores more
42%
level
28%
Independente SP scores more
31%

Tanabi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'
Marcelo Macola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanabi vs Independente SP

Tanabi beat Independente SP 1-0 in Paulista Série B on August 16, 2025.

Goals: Marcelo Macola (86').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.