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Tanabi vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Tanabi
Tanabi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
Unknown 14'
7/13/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tanabi44%
×Draw29%
Flamengo SP26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi
1.23
Flamengo SP
0.88

Tanabi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tanabi
1.50
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Tanabi
0.39
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 65Over: 3565%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw
74%
Tanabi or Flamengo SP
71%
Draw or Flamengo SP
56%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+
20%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals
71%
Tanabi 2+ goals
35%
Tanabi 3+ goals
13%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
59%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
22%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)
63%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tanabi scores more
44%
level
29%
Flamengo SP scores more
26%

Tanabi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
34'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tanabi 1–0 Flamengo SP

Tanabi beat Flamengo SP 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 13, 2024.

Goals: ? (14').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.