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Tanabi SP U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
Daniel Santos 60'
Ryan Rizardi 49'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanabi SP U2030%
×Draw26%
Desportivo Brasil U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi SP U20
1.19
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.48

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20
0.76
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20
1.53
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw
56%
Tanabi SP U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
74%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
70%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
12%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
70%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
33%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
12%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
77%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
43%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.19

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more
30%
level
26%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
44%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
Ryan Rizardi
60'
Daniel Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Tanabi SP U20 1–1 Desportivo Brasil U20

Tanabi SP U20 and Desportivo Brasil U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: Ryan Rizardi (49'), Daniel Santos (60').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.