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Tanabi SP U20 vs Comercial de Tietê U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
Unknown 18'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanabi SP U2040%
×Draw25%
Comercial de Tietê U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi SP U20
1.46
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20
0.76
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.15

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20
1.53
Comercial de Tietê U20
2.15

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par
Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Comercial de Tietê U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw
65%
Tanabi SP U20 or Comercial de Tietê U20
75%
Draw or Comercial de Tietê U20
60%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
19%
Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
77%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
43%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
18%
Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
74%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
39%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Comercial de Tietê U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.15 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more
40%
level
25%
Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
35%

Tanabi SP U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tanabi SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Tanabi SP U20 1–0 Comercial de Tietê U20

Tanabi SP U20 beat Comercial de Tietê U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (18').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.