Tanabi SP U20 0–2 Capivariano U20: Result & Stats

Tanabi SP U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Capivariano U20

Victor Gabriel 63'

Ze Xavier 59'

6/20/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanabi SP U2029%

×Draw27%

Capivariano U2045%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanabi SP U20Expected goals in this matchCapivariano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.41

Tanabi SP U20

1.08

Capivariano U20

1.41

Capivariano U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

1.29

1.53

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20

0.76

Capivariano U20

1.29

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20

1.53

Capivariano U20

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw

55%

Tanabi SP U20 or Capivariano U20

73%

Draw or Capivariano U20

71%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+

11%

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals

66%

Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals

29%

Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals

10%

Capivariano U20 1+ goals

76%

Capivariano U20 2+ goals

41%

Capivariano U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more

29%

level

27%

Capivariano U20 scores more

45%

Capivariano U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Ze Xavier

63'

Victor Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff