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Tamworth vs Crewe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tamworth
Tamworth
CANC
14:00
Crewe
Crewe
7/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5The Lamb Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tamworth32%
×Draw21%
Crewe47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamworth
1.75
Crewe
2.14

Crewe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tamworth
2.00
Crewe
2.88

allows per match

Tamworth
1.40
Crewe
1.50

finishing

Tamworth+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamworth ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tamworth or draw
53%
Tamworth or Crewe
79%
Draw or Crewe
68%

Winning margin

Tamworth wins by 2+
16%
Crewe wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tamworth 1+ goals
83%
Tamworth 2+ goals
52%
Tamworth 3+ goals
25%
Crewe 1+ goals
88%
Crewe 2+ goals
63%
Crewe 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tamworth (draw refunded)
41%
Crewe (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamworth at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Crewe away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamworth attack 2.00 + Crewe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Crewe attack 2.88 + Tamworth defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tamworth scores more
32%
level
21%
Crewe scores more
47%

Crewe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tamworth face Crewe (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Tamworth hosting Crewe. Match starts July 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tamworth host Crewe at The Lamb Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.