Tampines Rovers 3–1 Warriors: Result & Stats

Tampines Rovers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Warriors

S. Kunori 75'

F. Ramli 65'

B. Kopitović 45+4' (pen)

Li Ngai Hoi 4'

10/2/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tampines Rovers45%

×Draw21%

Warriors34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchWarriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.77

Tampines Rovers

2.05

Warriors

1.77

Tampines Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.11

creates per match

1.83

1.72

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.11

Warriors

1.83

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.72

Warriors

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

66%

Tampines Rovers or Warriors

79%

Draw or Warriors

55%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

25%

Warriors wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

87%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

61%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

33%

Warriors 1+ goals

83%

Warriors 2+ goals

53%

Warriors 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

57%

Warriors (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Warriors away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Warriors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Warriors attack 1.83 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

45%

level

21%

Warriors scores more

34%

Tampines Rovers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Kunori

Tampines Rovers · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

Li Ngai Hoi↳ Everton Camargo

45+1'

Jiloan Hamad← Paulinho Simionato

45+4'

B. KopitovićPenalty

46'

S. Kunori← S. Akbar

46'

A. Adli← S. Sazali

58'

F. Ramli← T. Suparno

59'

G. Kweh← J. Chew

63'

M. Zlatkovic

65'

F. Ramli↳ B. Kopitović

71'

Cheng Siu Kwan← Samuel

71'

Wong Chun Ho← T. Chow

75'

S. Kunori↳ G. Kweh

79'

K. Nakamura

79'

Ngan Lok Fung← Wu Chun Ming

79'

Kim Min-Kyu← R. Tachibana

83'

Y. Hanapi← B. Kopitović

89'

Li Ngai-Hoi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TampinesWarriors

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots12

8Corners9

7Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots12

9On Target6

3Off Target4

3Blocked2

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

541Total Passes286

490Accurate Passes231

91%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

8Offsides2