Tampines Rovers 0–2 Song Lam Nghe An

Tampines Rovers

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Song Lam Nghe An

Hồ Khắc Ngọc 71'

Hồ Phúc Tịnh 49'

2/10/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampines Rovers43%

×Draw23%

Song Lam Nghe An34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchSong Lam Nghe An

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.52

Tampines Rovers

1.72

Song Lam Nghe An

1.52

Tampines Rovers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

2.11

creates per match

1.33

1.72

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.11

Song Lam Nghe An

1.33

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.72

Song Lam Nghe An

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

66%

Tampines Rovers or Song Lam Nghe An

77%

Draw or Song Lam Nghe An

57%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

22%

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

82%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

51%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

25%

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals

78%

Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals

45%

Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

55%

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.33 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

43%

level

23%

Song Lam Nghe An scores more

34%

Tampines Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Lê Văn Hùng← Trần Nguyên Mạnh

49'

Hồ Phúc Tịnh↳ Hồ Khắc Ngọc

57'

K. Amri← S. Abdul Razak

71'

Hồ Khắc Ngọc

77'

Hồ Tuấn Tài← Hồ Phúc Tịnh

81'

Nguyễn Phú Nguyên← Ngô Xuân Toàn

Tampines

Song

1

▼

4

33

5

11

12

⚽A

Ngọc

20

Đức

9

Toàn

27

▼

Toàn

18

⚽

▼

69

24

16

17

3

12

18

4

6

7

10

13

▼

Razak

Manager: J. Raab

57'▲K. Amri←▼S. Abdul Razak

Tampines Rovers substitutes

19Amri1Farid14Azman15Shahiran25Stewart21Hasnol

Manager: Nguyễn Đức Thắng

23'▲Lê Văn Hùng←▼Trần Nguyên Mạnh

77'▲Hồ Tuấn Tài←▼Hồ Phúc Tịnh

81'▲Nguyễn Phú Nguyên←▼Ngô Xuân Toàn

Song Lam Nghe An substitutes

67Hùng10Tài19Nguyên8Sâm31Nguyên22Nam2Đức

Match Recap: Tampines Rovers vs Song Lam Nghe An

Song Lam Nghe An beat Tampines Rovers 2-0 in AFC Cup on February 10, 2018.

Goals: Hồ Phúc Tịnh (49'), Hồ Khắc Ngọc (71').

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore).

Tampines Rovers vs Song Lam Nghe An — AFC Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tampines Rovers vs Song Lam Nghe An