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Tampines Rovers vs PSM Makassar — AFC Cup 2018

Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PSM Makassar
PSM Makassar
2/12/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tampines Rovers39%
×Draw22%
PSM Makassar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampines Rovers
1.83
PSM Makassar
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tampines Rovers
2.11
PSM Makassar
2.00

allows per match

Tampines Rovers
1.72
PSM Makassar
1.55

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par
PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

PSM Makassar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw
60%
Tampines Rovers or PSM Makassar
78%
Draw or PSM Makassar
61%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
20%
PSM Makassar wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
84%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
54%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
28%
PSM Makassar 1+ goals
84%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
55%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
49%
PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + PSM Makassar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

PSM Makassar attack 2.00 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more
39%
level
22%
PSM Makassar scores more
40%

PSM Makassar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Tampines Rovers 2–1 PSM Makassar

Tampines Rovers beat PSM Makassar 2-1 in AFC Cup on February 12, 2020.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.