Tampines Rovers 2–3 Phnom Penh Crown

Tampines Rovers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Phnom Penh Crown

8/23/2023

AFC Cup · Play-off RoundJalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tampines Rovers54%

×Draw19%

Phnom Penh Crown26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchPhnom Penh Crown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.69

Tampines Rovers

2.47

Phnom Penh Crown

1.69

Tampines Rovers creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.11

creates per match

1.67

1.72

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.11

Phnom Penh Crown

1.67

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.72

Phnom Penh Crown

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Phnom Penh Crown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Phnom Penh Crown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

74%

Tampines Rovers or Phnom Penh Crown

81%

Draw or Phnom Penh Crown

46%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

34%

Phnom Penh Crown wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

91%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

70%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

44%

Phnom Penh Crown 1+ goals

82%

Phnom Penh Crown 2+ goals

50%

Phnom Penh Crown 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

68%

Phnom Penh Crown (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Phnom Penh Crown away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Phnom Penh Crown defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.47

Phnom Penh Crown attack 1.67 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

54%

level

19%

Phnom Penh Crown scores more

26%

Tampines Rovers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff