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Tampines Rovers vs Persija Jakarta — AFC Cup 2018

Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Persija Jakarta
Persija Jakarta
4/24/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tampines Rovers47%
×Draw22%
Persija Jakarta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampines Rovers
1.98
Persija Jakarta
1.57

Tampines Rovers creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tampines Rovers
2.11
Persija Jakarta
1.43

allows per match

Tampines Rovers
1.72
Persija Jakarta
1.86

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par
Persija Jakarta+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Persija Jakarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw
69%
Tampines Rovers or Persija Jakarta
78%
Draw or Persija Jakarta
53%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
27%
Persija Jakarta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
86%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
59%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
31%
Persija Jakarta 1+ goals
79%
Persija Jakarta 2+ goals
46%
Persija Jakarta 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
60%
Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Persija Jakarta away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Persija Jakarta attack 1.43 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more
47%
level
22%
Persija Jakarta scores more
31%

Tampines Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Tampines Rovers 2–4 Persija Jakarta

Persija Jakarta beat Tampines Rovers 4-2 in AFC Cup on April 24, 2018.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore).