Tampines Rovers 3–3 Nam Dinh: Result & Stats

Tampines Rovers

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Nam Dinh

S. Yamashita 62'

S. Kunori 24'

S. Shahiran 12'

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh 76'

J. Mpande 42'

Rafaelson 32'

10/24/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tampines Rovers52%

×Draw21%

Nam Dinh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchNam Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.50

Tampines Rovers

2.13

Nam Dinh

1.50

Tampines Rovers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

1.29

1.72

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.11

Nam Dinh

1.29

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.72

Nam Dinh

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Nam Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

73%

Tampines Rovers or Nam Dinh

79%

Draw or Nam Dinh

48%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

88%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

63%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

35%

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

78%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

44%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

66%

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Nam Dinh away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Nam Dinh defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Nam Dinh attack 1.29 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

52%

level

21%

Nam Dinh scores more

27%

Tampines Rovers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Mpande

Nam Dinh · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

S. Shahiran↳ G. Kweh

24'

S. Kunori↳ K. Nakamura

28'

Joseph Mbolimbo Mpande

32'

Rafaelson↳ Lucas Silva

42'

J. Mpande↳ Lucas

46'

Lý Công Hoàng Anh← M. Odo

53'

Rafaelson

62'

S. Yamashita↳ G. Kweh

65'

F. Ramli← T. Suparno

67'

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh← Caio César

76'

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh↳ Hêndrio

77'

I. Najeeb← A. Adli

77'

J. Chew← G. Kweh

79'

Trần Văn Trung← Nguyễn Văn Vĩ

85'

Trần Văn Đạt← Lucas Silva

88'

Y. Hanapi← B. Kopitović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TampinesNam

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots17

2Corners10

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots17

5On Target9

2Off Target6

2Blocked2

7Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

336Total Passes394

276Accurate Passes342

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides6