Tampines Rovers 0–4 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Tampines Rovers

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

7/4/2021

AFC Champions League · Group H - 4Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampines Rovers9%

×Draw16%

Jeonbuk Motors75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

2.38

Tampines Rovers

0.66

Jeonbuk Motors

2.38

Jeonbuk Motors creates 261% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

0.00

creates per match

1.77

3.00

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

0.00

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

3.00

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–214%

0–311%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

25%

Tampines Rovers or Jeonbuk Motors

84%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

91%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

2%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

48%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

14%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

3%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

91%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

68%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

10%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 0.00 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.66

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Tampines Rovers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

9%

level

16%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

75%

Jeonbuk Motors at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff