Tampines Rovers 2–1 BG Pathum United

Tampines Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BG Pathum United

H. Higashikawa 57'

T. Buhagiar 42'

N. Sandokhadze 86'

10/2/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Tampines Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampines Rovers46%

×Draw24%

BG Pathum United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.36

Tampines Rovers

1.72

BG Pathum United

1.36

Tampines Rovers creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

2.11

creates per match

1.00

1.72

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.11

BG Pathum United

1.00

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.72

BG Pathum United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

70%

Tampines Rovers or BG Pathum United

76%

Draw or BG Pathum United

54%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

24%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

82%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

51%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

25%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

74%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

39%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

60%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + BG Pathum United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

BG Pathum United attack 1.00 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

46%

level

24%

BG Pathum United scores more

30%

Tampines Rovers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Songkrasin

BG Pathum United · M

8.3

Match Events

42'

T. Buhagiar↳ K. Kazama

46'

G. Notsuda← T. Ose

46'

C. Songkrasin← S. Sareepim

56'

Sanchai Nonthasila

57'

H. Higashikawa↳ K. Kazama

63'

J. Emaviwe← T. Doi

63'

Matheus Fornazari← J. Lopez

64'

J. Mahler← S. Shahiran

64'

T. Suparno← G. Kweh

74'

T. Ndao← H. Higashikawa

75'

Talla Ndao

84'

S. Tiatrakul← S. Nonthasila

86'

N. Sandokhadze↳ C. Tongkiri

88'

A. A. Bin Azmi← I. Najeeb

88'

J. Chew← K. Kazama

89'

Joel Chew Joon Herng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TampinesBG

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots28

1Corners6

6Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots28

2On Target8

2Off Target11

2Blocked9

5Inside Box15

1Outside Box13

Passing

45%Possession55%

438Total Passes515

362Accurate Passes467

83%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2