Tampico Madero 0–0 Raya2: Result & Stats

Tampico Madero

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raya2

3/9/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tampico Madero41%

×Draw29%

Raya230%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchRaya2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.98

Tampico Madero

1.20

Raya2

0.98

Tampico Madero creates 22% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

0.94

1.02

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tampico Madero

1.19

Raya2

0.94

allows per match

Tampico Madero

1.02

Raya2

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Raya2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw

70%

Tampico Madero or Raya2

71%

Draw or Raya2

59%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

18%

Raya2 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

70%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

34%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

12%

Raya2 1+ goals

62%

Raya2 2+ goals

26%

Raya2 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

58%

Raya2 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 64 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.19 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Tampico Madero defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tampico Madero scores more

41%

level

29%

Raya2 scores more

30%

Tampico Madero at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff