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Tampico Madero vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
10/21/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tampico Madero43%
×Draw27%
Pumas Tabasco31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.40
Pumas Tabasco
1.14

Tampico Madero creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.19
Pumas Tabasco
1.26

allows per match

Tampico Madero
1.02
Pumas Tabasco
1.60

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Pumas Tabasco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
69%
Tampico Madero or Pumas Tabasco
73%
Draw or Pumas Tabasco
57%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
20%
Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
75%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
41%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
17%
Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
68%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
32%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
58%
Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 64 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.19 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Tampico Madero defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
43%
level
27%
Pumas Tabasco scores more
31%

Tampico Madero at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 1–2 Pumas Tabasco

Pumas Tabasco beat Tampico Madero 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas in Tampico y Ciudad Madero.