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Tampico Madero vs Cancún — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cancún
Cancún
2/3/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampico Madero44%
×Draw29%
Cancún28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.26
Cancún
0.94

Tampico Madero creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.15
Cancún
0.92

allows per match

Tampico Madero
0.95
Cancún
1.38

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Cancún →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
72%
Tampico Madero or Cancún
71%
Draw or Cancún
56%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
20%
Cancún wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
72%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
36%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
13%
Cancún 1+ goals
61%
Cancún 2+ goals
24%
Cancún 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
61%
Cancún (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cancún attack 0.92 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
44%
level
29%
Cancún scores more
28%

Tampico Madero at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 1–2 Cancún

Cancún beat Tampico Madero 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas in Tampico y Ciudad Madero.