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Tampico Madero vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
10/2/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tampico Madero49%
×Draw26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.48
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.95

Tampico Madero creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 126 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.14
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Tampico Madero
0.97
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.82

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
76%
Tampico Madero or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
74%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
51%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
77%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
43%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
19%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
61%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
67%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.82 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.14 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Tampico Madero defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
49%
level
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
24%

Tampico Madero at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampico Madero vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Tampico Madero beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas in Tampico y Ciudad Madero.