Tampere United 0–2 MP: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Tampere United

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

MP

A. Kuek 90'

A. Chishima 74'

8/22/2025

Ykkönen · Round 21Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tampere United45%

×Draw24%

MP31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchMP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.34

Tampere United

1.65

MP

1.34

Tampere United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 64 away

1.57

creates per match

1.45

1.24

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Tampere United

1.57

MP

1.45

allows per match

Tampere United

1.24

MP

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

MP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

MP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

69%

Tampere United or MP

76%

Draw or MP

55%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

23%

MP wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

81%

Tampere United 2+ goals

49%

Tampere United 3+ goals

23%

MP 1+ goals

74%

MP 2+ goals

39%

MP 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

59%

MP (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

MP away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.72 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.57 + MP defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

MP attack 1.45 + Tampere United defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tampere United scores more

45%

level

24%

MP scores more

31%

Tampere United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

V. Karttunen← A. Torniainen

74'

A. Raittinen← T. Ozcelik

74'

J. Georg← J. Koistinen

74'

A. Chishima

85'

L. Kesti← J. Rantala

90+3'

R. Lehtonen

90'

M. Sarlin← J. Hallivuori

90'

N. Krivetz← N. Forsell

90'

A. Kuek

Tampere

MP

22

Uronen

2

▼

Torniaine

3

Kuismala

4

Laiho

7

⚽

Chishima

13

Coker

15

⚽

Kuek

19

Janhunen

25

Tsopgni

27

▼

Forsell

30

Abubakar

1

Immonen

3

▼

4

8

9

10

▼

Ozcelik

15

▼

Rantala

21

▼

23

24

35

Manager: S. Bowles

74'▲A. Raittinen←▼T. Ozcelik

74'▲J. Georg←▼J. Koistinen

85'▲L. Kesti←▼J. Rantala

90'▲M. Sarlin←▼J. Hallivuori

Tampere United substitutes

25Hajdinaj5Jokinen7Stenroos11Raittinen17Kesti18Georg26Nieminen28Seyar33Sarlin

Manager: I. Thiaw

64'▲V. Karttunen←▼A. Torniainen

90'▲N. Krivetz←▼N. Forsell

MP substitutes

33Heikkinen5Karttunen8Torniainen9Karttunen11Hayhanen12Kimari18Krivetz