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Tampere United vs Inter Turku II — Ykkönen 2026

Tampere United
Tampere United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
J. Huhtala 32'
J. Laitinen 15'
E. Hajdini 90+4'
A. Salonen 61'
7/24/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKauppi 3 - Artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tampere United48%
×Draw21%
Inter Turku II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampere United
2.12
Inter Turku II
1.69

Tampere United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tampere United
1.57
Inter Turku II
2.14

allows per match

Tampere United
1.24
Inter Turku II
2.67

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw
69%
Tampere United or Inter Turku II
79%
Draw or Inter Turku II
52%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+
28%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals
88%
Tampere United 2+ goals
62%
Tampere United 3+ goals
35%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
82%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
50%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)
60%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.57 + Inter Turku II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Inter Turku II attack 2.14 + Tampere United defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tampere United scores more
48%
level
21%
Inter Turku II scores more
31%

Tampere United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Laitinen
32'
J. Huhtala
61'
N. Hasa← J. Laitinen
61'
A. Hamalainen← J. Enbuska
61'
E. Hajdini← P. Otoo
61'
A. Salonen
63'
J. Georg← L. Kesti
76'
M. Dahlbom← S. Korsunov
76'
N. Meltoranta← P. Aalto
76'
A. Ahmed← R. Mendolin
81'
M. Hoglund
90+2'
A. Kovaqi← J. Rantala
90+4'
E. Hajdini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Tampere United 2–2 Inter Turku II

Tampere United and Inter Turku II drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on July 24, 2026.

Goals: J. Laitinen (15'), J. Huhtala (32'), A. Salonen (61'), E. Hajdini (90+4').

The match was played at Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass in Tampere.