Tampere United 0–3 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

Tampere United

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Turku

5/17/2023

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampere United6%

×Draw13%

Inter Turku80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

2.62

Tampere United

0.59

Inter Turku

2.62

Inter Turku creates 344% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

0.33

creates per match

2.23

3.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Tampere United

0.33

Inter Turku

2.23

allows per match

Tampere United

3.00

Inter Turku

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

Inter Turku →

0–04%

0–111%

0–214%

0–312%

0–48%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

20%

Tampere United or Inter Turku

87%

Draw or Inter Turku

94%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

Inter Turku wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

45%

Tampere United 2+ goals

12%

Tampere United 3+ goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

93%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

73%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 0.33 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + Tampere United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Tampere United scores more

level

13%

Inter Turku scores more

80%

Inter Turku at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff