Tampere United 3–1 I-Kissat: Result & Stats

Tampere United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

I-Kissat

6/17/2022

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 6Pyynikin urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tampere United48%

×Draw21%

I-Kissat31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchI-Kissat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.65

Tampere United

2.10

I-Kissat

1.65

Tampere United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

1.84

creates per match

2.00

1.30

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Tampere United

1.84

I-Kissat

2.00

allows per match

Tampere United

1.30

I-Kissat

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

I-Kissat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

I-Kissat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

69%

Tampere United or I-Kissat

79%

Draw or I-Kissat

52%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

28%

I-Kissat wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

88%

Tampere United 2+ goals

62%

Tampere United 3+ goals

35%

I-Kissat 1+ goals

81%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

49%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

61%

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

I-Kissat away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.84 + I-Kissat defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.10

I-Kissat attack 2.00 + Tampere United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tampere United scores more

48%

level

21%

I-Kissat scores more

31%

Tampere United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff