I-Kissat 1–2 Tampere United: Result & Stats

I-Kissat

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tampere United

9/1/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 17Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

I-Kissat44%

×Draw21%

Tampere United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I-KissatExpected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.89

I-Kissat

2.13

Tampere United

1.89

I-Kissat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

2.18

creates per match

1.55

2.23

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

I-Kissat

2.18

Tampere United

1.55

allows per match

I-Kissat

2.23

Tampere United

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

I-Kissat+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

I-Kissat ↓

Tampere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

I-Kissat or draw

65%

I-Kissat or Tampere United

79%

Draw or Tampere United

56%

Winning margin

I-Kissat wins by 2+

25%

Tampere United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

I-Kissat 1+ goals

88%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

63%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

35%

Tampere United 1+ goals

85%

Tampere United 2+ goals

56%

Tampere United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

56%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

I-Kissat at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Tampere United away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

I-Kissat attack 2.18 + Tampere United defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tampere United attack 1.55 + I-Kissat defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

I-Kissat scores more

44%

level

21%

Tampere United scores more

35%

I-Kissat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff