Tampere United 0–3 Gnistan: Result & Stats

Tampere United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Gnistan

8/3/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 14Pyynikin urheilukenttä (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tampere United22%

×Draw22%

Gnistan56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchGnistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.02

Tampere United

1.20

Gnistan

2.02

Gnistan creates 68% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

1.84

creates per match

2.73

1.30

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Tampere United

1.84

Gnistan

2.73

allows per match

Tampere United

1.30

Gnistan

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

Gnistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

44%

Tampere United or Gnistan

78%

Draw or Gnistan

78%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

9%

Gnistan wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

70%

Tampere United 2+ goals

34%

Tampere United 3+ goals

12%

Gnistan 1+ goals

87%

Gnistan 2+ goals

60%

Gnistan 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

28%

Gnistan (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

Gnistan away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.84 + Gnistan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gnistan attack 2.73 + Tampere United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tampere United scores more

22%

level

22%

Gnistan scores more

56%

Gnistan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff