Tampere United 2–0 EPS: Result & Stats

Tampere United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

EPS

J. Rantala 26'

A. Bright 10'

7/15/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 11Pyynikin urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tampere United46%

×Draw24%

EPS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchEPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.29

Tampere United

1.64

EPS

1.29

Tampere United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 52 away

1.84

creates per match

1.29

1.30

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Tampere United

1.84

EPS

1.29

allows per match

Tampere United

1.30

EPS

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

EPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

EPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

70%

Tampere United or EPS

76%

Draw or EPS

54%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

24%

EPS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

81%

Tampere United 2+ goals

49%

Tampere United 3+ goals

23%

EPS 1+ goals

72%

EPS 2+ goals

37%

EPS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

60%

EPS (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

EPS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.84 + EPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

EPS attack 1.29 + Tampere United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tampere United scores more

46%

level

24%

EPS scores more

30%

Tampere United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

26'

27'

33'

46'

46'

T. Sjöstedt← V. Salavuo

51'

J. Ziprus

58'

R. Kostiainen← E. Korhonen

64'

K. Miyakoshi← U. Kumpulainen

64'

M. Ambasciano← V. Kiiski

68'

T. Sjostedt

75'

A. Haapala

77'

J. Stenroos← J. Heikkinen

77'

E. Rantaneva← E. Bullock

77'

79'

83'

90+2'

90+3'

Tampere

EPS

15

Ziprus

22

Kotilaine

4

Viramäki

30

▼

Kumpulain

2

▼

Tashevci

27

Ahmed-Nur

16

▼

Salavuo

6

Amehri

14

Sasabe

98

▼

Kiiski

7

▼

Azhar

32

Kuusinen

15

⚽

Rantala

4

Ek

13

⚽

Bright

2

Aitbenzan

25

▼

Korhonen

20

▼

Haapala

30

▼

Heikkinen

17

Özcelik

9

▼

Bullock

18

▼

Georg

Manager: J. Listenmaa

58'▲R. Kostiainen←▼E. Korhonen

77'▲J. Stenroos←▼J. Heikkinen

77'▲E. Rantaneva←▼E. Bullock

77'▲A. Mättö←▼A. Haapala

90+3'▲J. Vuori←▼J. Georg

Tampere United substitutes

10Kostiainen7Stenroos22Rantaneva24Mättö21Vuori23Koikkalainen41Räisänen

Manager: Tiago Santos

46'▲A. Aho←▼E. Tashevci

46'▲T. Sjöstedt←▼V. Salavuo

64'▲K. Miyakoshi←▼U. Kumpulainen

64'▲M. Ambasciano←▼V. Kiiski

79'▲R. Sipi←▼Laith Azhar

EPS substitutes

3Aho33Sjöstedt17Miyakoshi23Ambasciano21Sipi1Lyberopoulos19Lyytikäinen

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Tampere United 2–0 EPS

Tampere United beat EPS 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Bright (10'), J. Rantala (26').

The match was played at Pyynikin urheilukenttä in Tampere.

Tampere United vs EPS — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Tampere United 2–0 EPS