Tampere United III 0–7 TPV: Result & Stats

Tampere United III

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

TPV

4/22/2025

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tampere United III5%

×Draw8%

TPV87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere United IIIExpected goals in this matchTPV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

4.88

Tampere United III

1.33

TPV

4.88

TPV creates 267% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

5.75

4.00

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Tampere United III

1.75

TPV

5.75

allows per match

Tampere United III

4.00

TPV

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United III+0.00on par

TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United III ↓

TPV →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–35%

0–46%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Tampere United III or draw

13%

Tampere United III or TPV

92%

Draw or TPV

95%

Winning margin

Tampere United III wins by 2+

TPV wins by 2+

74%

Team goals

Tampere United III 1+ goals

74%

Tampere United III 2+ goals

38%

Tampere United III 3+ goals

15%

TPV 1+ goals

99%

TPV 2+ goals

94%

TPV 3+ goals

83%

Draw no bet

Tampere United III (draw refunded)

TPV (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tampere United III at home — creates 1.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

TPV away — creates 5.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United III attack 1.75 + TPV defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

TPV attack 5.75 + Tampere United III defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Tampere United III scores more

level

TPV scores more

87%

TPV at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff