Tampere United II 0–11 EIF: Result & Stats

Tampere United II

0 – 11

HT: 0 – 5

EIF

4/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundPyynikin urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampere United II6%

×Draw9%

EIF85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere United IIExpected goals in this matchEIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

3.95

Tampere United II

1.08

EIF

3.95

EIF creates 266% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

2.56

5.33

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Tampere United II

1.00

EIF

2.56

allows per match

Tampere United II

5.33

EIF

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United II+0.00on par

EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United II ↓

EIF →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–47%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Tampere United II or draw

15%

Tampere United II or EIF

91%

Draw or EIF

94%

Winning margin

Tampere United II wins by 2+

EIF wins by 2+

69%

Team goals

Tampere United II 1+ goals

66%

Tampere United II 2+ goals

29%

Tampere United II 3+ goals

10%

EIF 1+ goals

98%

EIF 2+ goals

89%

EIF 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

Tampere United II (draw refunded)

EIF (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tampere United II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

EIF away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United II attack 1.00 + EIF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

EIF attack 2.56 + Tampere United II defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Tampere United II scores more

level

EIF scores more

85%

EIF at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff