Tampa Bay United 4–2 Pinellas County

Tampa Bay United

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Pinellas County

5/21/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Ed Radice Sports Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tampa Bay United41%

×Draw24%

Pinellas County35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampa Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchPinellas County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.46

Tampa Bay United

1.62

Pinellas County

1.46

Tampa Bay United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.62

creates per match

1.78

1.14

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Tampa Bay United

1.62

Pinellas County

1.78

allows per match

Tampa Bay United

1.14

Pinellas County

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

Pinellas County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw

65%

Tampa Bay United or Pinellas County

76%

Draw or Pinellas County

59%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

21%

Pinellas County wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

80%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

48%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

22%

Pinellas County 1+ goals

77%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

43%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

55%

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Pinellas County away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + Pinellas County defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Pinellas County attack 1.78 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more

41%

level

24%

Pinellas County scores more

35%

Tampa Bay United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff