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Tampa Bay United vs FC Miami City — USL League Two 2018

Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
FT
2 – 2
FC Miami City
FC Miami City
6/2/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15Jesuit High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tampa Bay United50%
×Draw23%
FC Miami City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay United
1.81
FC Miami City
1.29

Tampa Bay United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay United
1.62
FC Miami City
1.45

allows per match

Tampa Bay United
1.14
FC Miami City
2.00

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par
FC Miami City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

FC Miami City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw
73%
Tampa Bay United or FC Miami City
77%
Draw or FC Miami City
50%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
27%
FC Miami City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
84%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
54%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
27%
FC Miami City 1+ goals
72%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
37%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
64%
FC Miami City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

FC Miami City away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + FC Miami City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Miami City attack 1.45 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more
50%
level
23%
FC Miami City scores more
27%

Tampa Bay United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampa Bay United vs FC Miami City

Tampa Bay United and FC Miami City drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Jesuit High School in Tampa, Florida.