Tampa Bay United 3–0 FC Florida II: Result & Stats

Tampa Bay United

FT

3 – 0

FC Florida II

7/3/2021

USL League Two · Round 43Jesuit High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tampa Bay United57%

×Draw24%

FC Florida II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampa Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchFC Florida II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.91

Tampa Bay United

1.73

FC Florida II

0.91

Tampa Bay United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.62

creates per match

0.67

1.14

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Tampa Bay United

1.62

FC Florida II

0.67

allows per match

Tampa Bay United

1.14

FC Florida II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

FC Florida II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

FC Florida II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw

80%

Tampa Bay United or FC Florida II

76%

Draw or FC Florida II

43%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

32%

FC Florida II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

82%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

52%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

25%

FC Florida II 1+ goals

60%

FC Florida II 2+ goals

23%

FC Florida II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

74%

FC Florida II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

FC Florida II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + FC Florida II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Florida II attack 0.67 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more

57%

level

24%

FC Florida II scores more

20%

Tampa Bay United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff