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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
4/16/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Al Lang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies56%
×Draw22%
Tulsa Roughnecks22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.92
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.12

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 71% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.02
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.05
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
78%
Tampa Bay Rowdies or Tulsa Roughnecks
78%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
44%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
32%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
85%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
57%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
30%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
67%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
31%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
72%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.05 · 139 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.02 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
56%
level
22%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
22%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Tulsa Roughnecks 3-1 in USL Championship on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, Florida.