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FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
8/19/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 29ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Tulsa36%
×Draw26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.32
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 135 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.33

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.19

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
62%
FC Tulsa or Tampa Bay Rowdies
74%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
64%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
16%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
73%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
38%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
15%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
75%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
40%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
48%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
36%
level
26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
38%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat FC Tulsa 2-1 in USL Championship on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.