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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
5/25/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 21Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies60%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.10
Sporting KC II
1.11

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 89% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.02
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.05
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
81%
Tampa Bay Rowdies or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
40%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
37%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
88%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
62%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
35%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
67%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
75%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.05 · 139 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.02 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
60%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
19%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Sporting KC II

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Sporting KC II 1-0 in USL Championship on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, Florida).