Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 130+ matches
Tampa Bay Rowdies43%
Louisville City32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 19% more chances
Season form · 139 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.05 · 139 matches
Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.02 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.57
Louisville City attack 1.59 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Tampa Bay Rowdies at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tampa Bay Rowdies host Louisville City on Saturday, 15 June 2024 at 23:30. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
USL Championship: Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–2 Louisville City
Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Louisville City 3-2 in USL Championship on June 15, 2024.
Goals: C. Jennings (30'), M. Arteaga (36' pen), A. McFadden (45+2'), Jorge González (51'), D. Rivera (90+2').
The match was played at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg, Florida.