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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
6/25/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Al Lang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies54%
×Draw23%
Indy Eleven23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.79
Indy Eleven
1.08

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 66% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.01
Indy Eleven
1.12

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.04
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
77%
Tampa Bay Rowdies or Indy Eleven
77%
Draw or Indy Eleven
46%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
30%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
83%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
53%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
26%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
66%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
29%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
70%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.01 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
54%
level
23%
Indy Eleven scores more
23%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–1 Indy Eleven

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Indy Eleven 3-1 in USL Championship on June 25, 2025.

The match was played at Al Lang Stadium.