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Tammeka vs Pärnu — Cup 2020

Tammeka
Tammekaadvanced
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
8/16/2022CupCup · Round of 32Tamme staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tammeka97%
×Draw3%
Pärnu1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tammeka
4.92
Pärnu
0.42

Tammeka creates 1071% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tammeka
5.50
Pärnu
0.33

allows per match

Tammeka
0.50
Pärnu
4.33

finishing

Tammeka+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Tammeka or draw
99%
Tammeka or Pärnu
97%
Draw or Pärnu
3%

Winning margin

Tammeka wins by 2+
89%
Pärnu wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Tammeka 1+ goals
99%
Tammeka 2+ goals
94%
Tammeka 3+ goals
83%
Pärnu 1+ goals
34%
Pärnu 2+ goals
7%
Pärnu 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Tammeka (draw refunded)
99%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka at home — creates 5.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka attack 5.50 + Pärnu defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.92

Pärnu attack 0.33 + Tammeka defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Tammeka scores more
97%
level
3%
Pärnu scores more
1%

Tammeka at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Tammeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tammeka vs Pärnu

Tammeka beat Pärnu 8-0 in Cup on August 16, 2022.

The match was played at Tamme staadion in Tartu.