Tambuti 2–1 Tinyosi: Result & Stats

Tambuti

FT

2 – 1

Tinyosi

6/5/2022

Premier League · Round 24Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tambuti36%

×Draw28%

Tinyosi36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambutiExpected goals in this matchTinyosi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.20

Tambuti

1.21

Tinyosi

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

1.02

creates per match

0.90

1.49

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tambuti

1.02

Tinyosi

0.90

allows per match

Tambuti

1.49

Tinyosi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par

Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Tinyosi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw

64%

Tambuti or Tinyosi

72%

Draw or Tinyosi

64%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+

16%

Tinyosi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals

70%

Tambuti 2+ goals

34%

Tambuti 3+ goals

12%

Tinyosi 1+ goals

70%

Tinyosi 2+ goals

34%

Tinyosi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)

50%

Tinyosi (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tambuti scores more

36%

level

28%

Tinyosi scores more

36%

Tambuti at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tambuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff