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Tambuti vs Seven Dreams — Premier League 2020

Tambuti
Tambuti
FT
0 – 1
Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
10/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tambuti53%
×Draw25%
Seven Dreams22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambuti
1.63
Seven Dreams
0.97

Tambuti creates 68% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tambuti
1.02
Seven Dreams
0.46

allows per match

Tambuti
1.49
Seven Dreams
2.23

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par
Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Seven Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw
78%
Tambuti or Seven Dreams
75%
Draw or Seven Dreams
47%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+
28%
Seven Dreams wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals
80%
Tambuti 2+ goals
48%
Tambuti 3+ goals
22%
Seven Dreams 1+ goals
62%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
25%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)
70%
Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.63

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tambuti scores more
53%
level
25%
Seven Dreams scores more
22%

Tambuti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tambuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambuti vs Seven Dreams

Seven Dreams beat Tambuti 1-0 in Premier League on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.