Tambuti 0–2 Royal Leopards: Result & Stats

Tambuti

FT

0 – 2

Royal Leopards

8/4/2021

Premier League · Round 22King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambuti22%

×Draw24%

Royal Leopards54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambutiExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.69

Tambuti

0.99

Royal Leopards

1.69

Royal Leopards creates 71% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

1.02

creates per match

1.88

1.49

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Tambuti

1.02

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Tambuti

1.49

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw

46%

Tambuti or Royal Leopards

76%

Draw or Royal Leopards

78%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+

8%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals

63%

Tambuti 2+ goals

26%

Tambuti 3+ goals

8%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

82%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

50%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)

29%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tambuti scores more

22%

level

24%

Royal Leopards scores more

54%

Royal Leopards at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff