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Tambuti vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Tambuti
Tambuti
FT
0 – 3
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
5/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambuti22%
×Draw27%
Nsingizini Hotspurs50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambuti
0.84
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.41

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 68% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 54 away

creates per match

Tambuti
1.02
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Tambuti
1.49
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw
50%
Tambuti or Nsingizini Hotspurs
73%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
78%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+
7%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals
57%
Tambuti 2+ goals
21%
Tambuti 3+ goals
5%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
76%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
41%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)
31%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.84

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tambuti scores more
22%
level
27%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
50%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambuti 0–3 Nsingizini Hotspurs

Nsingizini Hotspurs beat Tambuti 3-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.