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Tambuti vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Tambuti
Tambuti
FT
1 – 1
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
12/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambuti34%
×Draw27%
Moneni Pirates38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambuti
1.19
Moneni Pirates
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tambuti
1.02
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Tambuti
1.49
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw
62%
Tambuti or Moneni Pirates
73%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
66%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+
14%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals
70%
Tambuti 2+ goals
33%
Tambuti 3+ goals
12%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
72%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
36%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)
47%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tambuti scores more
34%
level
27%
Moneni Pirates scores more
38%

Moneni Pirates at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambuti 1–1 Moneni Pirates

Tambuti and Moneni Pirates drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.