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Tambuti vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Tambuti
Tambuti
FT
2 – 0
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
5/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tambuti56%
×Draw23%
Mhlume Peacemakers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambuti
1.81
Mhlume Peacemakers
1.01

Tambuti creates 79% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tambuti
1.02
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Tambuti
1.49
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw
79%
Tambuti or Mhlume Peacemakers
77%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
44%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+
32%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals
84%
Tambuti 2+ goals
54%
Tambuti 3+ goals
27%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
64%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
27%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)
73%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.81

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tambuti scores more
56%
level
23%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
21%

Tambuti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tambuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambuti 2–0 Mhlume Peacemakers

Tambuti beat Mhlume Peacemakers 2-0 in Premier League on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.