Tambov 3–0 Tom Tomsk: Result & Stats | First League

Tambov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tom Tomsk

9/19/2018

First League · Round 12Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov51%

×Draw26%

Tom Tomsk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambovExpected goals in this matchTom Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.89

Tambov

1.47

Tom Tomsk

0.89

Tambov creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

1.62

creates per match

0.91

0.86

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tambov

1.62

Tom Tomsk

0.91

allows per match

Tambov

0.86

Tom Tomsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Tom Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tambov or draw

77%

Tambov or Tom Tomsk

74%

Draw or Tom Tomsk

49%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+

25%

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals

77%

Tambov 2+ goals

43%

Tambov 3+ goals

18%

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

59%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

22%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)

69%

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tambov scores more

51%

level

26%

Tom Tomsk scores more

23%

Tambov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff