Tambov 1–3 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Tambov

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

2/26/2021

Premier League · Round 20Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tambov43%

×Draw26%

Rotor Volgograd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambovExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.14

Tambov

1.41

Rotor Volgograd

1.14

Tambov creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

0.69

1.59

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Tambov

1.00

Rotor Volgograd

0.69

allows per match

Tambov

1.59

Rotor Volgograd

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tambov or draw

70%

Tambov or Rotor Volgograd

74%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

57%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+

21%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals

76%

Tambov 2+ goals

41%

Tambov 3+ goals

17%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

68%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

32%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)

59%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.69 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tambov scores more

43%

level

26%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

30%

Tambov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff