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Tambov vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
7/29/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov42%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.26
Nizhny Novgorod
1.02

Tambov creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
70%
Tambov or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
58%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
19%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
72%
Tambov 2+ goals
36%
Tambov 3+ goals
13%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
64%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
27%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
58%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tambov scores more
42%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
30%

Tambov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambov vs Nizhny Novgorod

Tambov and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in First League on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Tambov).