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Tambov vs Luch-Energiya — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
A. Murnin 85'
K. Mamtov 75'
R. Gordienko 48'
3/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion STC Tambov (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tambov48%
×Draw28%
Luch-Energiya24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.36
Luch-Energiya
0.86

Tambov creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.63
Luch-Energiya
0.83

allows per match

Tambov
0.89
Luch-Energiya
1.09

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Luch-Energiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
76%
Tambov or Luch-Energiya
72%
Draw or Luch-Energiya
52%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
23%
Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
74%
Tambov 2+ goals
39%
Tambov 3+ goals
16%
Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
58%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
21%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
67%
Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.63 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Luch-Energiya attack 0.83 + Tambov defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tambov scores more
48%
level
28%
Luch-Energiya scores more
24%

Tambov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Ruslan Gordienko
45'
Andrei Pavlenko
48'
R. Gordienko
65'
Dmitri Chistyakov
66'
Andrei Pavlenko
74'
Aleksandr Kotlyarov
74'
Khyzyr Appaev
75'
K. Mamtov
79'
Ilya Postukhov
85'
A. Murnin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tambov 2–1 Luch-Energiya

Tambov beat Luch-Energiya 2-1 in First League on March 30, 2019.

Goals: R. Gordienko (48'), K. Mamtov (75'), A. Murnin (85').

The match was played at Stadion STC Tambov (Tambov).