Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tambov vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
3/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tambov39%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.40
Krylya Sovetov
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 106 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.00
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Tambov
1.59
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
65%
Tambov or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
61%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
18%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
75%
Tambov 2+ goals
41%
Tambov 3+ goals
17%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
73%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
38%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
53%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tambov scores more
39%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
35%

Tambov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambov 3–0 Krylya Sovetov

Tambov beat Krylya Sovetov 3-0 in Premier League on March 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.