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Tambov vs Khimki — Premier League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
8/18/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tambov45%
×Draw25%
Khimki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.57
Khimki
1.26

Tambov creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.00
Khimki
0.93

allows per match

Tambov
1.59
Khimki
2.15

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
69%
Tambov or Khimki
75%
Draw or Khimki
55%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
22%
Khimki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
79%
Tambov 2+ goals
46%
Tambov 3+ goals
21%
Khimki 1+ goals
72%
Khimki 2+ goals
36%
Khimki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
59%
Khimki (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Khimki attack 0.93 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tambov scores more
45%
level
25%
Khimki scores more
31%

Tambov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tambov 1 – 0 Khimki

Tambov beat Khimki 1-0 in Premier League on August 18, 2020.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.