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Tambov vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
11/14/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion STC Tambov (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov53%
×Draw27%
FC Armavir20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.44
FC Armavir
0.77

Tambov creates 87% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
80%
Tambov or FC Armavir
73%
Draw or FC Armavir
47%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
27%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
76%
Tambov 2+ goals
42%
Tambov 3+ goals
18%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
54%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
18%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
73%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tambov scores more
53%
level
27%
FC Armavir scores more
20%

Tambov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tambov 0–1 FC Armavir

FC Armavir beat Tambov 1-0 in First League on November 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion STC Tambov (Tambov).