Tambov 0–2 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Tambov

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Moscow

8/24/2019

Premier League · Round 7Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tambov30%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moscow44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.50

Tambov

1.19

Dinamo Moscow

1.50

Dinamo Moscow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

1.41

1.59

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Tambov

1.00

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Tambov

1.59

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tambov or draw

56%

Tambov or Dinamo Moscow

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

70%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+

12%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals

70%

Tambov 2+ goals

33%

Tambov 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

44%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)

40%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tambov scores more

30%

level

26%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

44%

Dinamo Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff